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SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Indonesia's palm oil exports this marketing year will likely be 18.95 million metric tons, down 1% from an earlier estimate, as a decline in shipments to Europe and India will likely offset additional demand from Pakistan and China, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.

Indonesia's palm oil exports to Europe in the year that started May 1, are likely to decline to 3.5 million tons from an earlier forecast of 4.5 million tons due to the ongoing global economic downturn, the USDA said over the weekend.

India will likely reduce its dependence on Indonesian crude palm oil since the world's largest producer changed the tax structure to reduce export taxes on processed and refined products but increase it for CPO exports, it said.

Indonesia will likely increase palm oil exports to Pakistan since signing the Pakistan-Indonesia Preferential Trade Agreement in September. The PTA, which takes effect from January 2012, cuts the import duty on Indonesian palm oil from 15% to zero, it said.

Pakistan palm oil imports have grown annually by an average of 7.06% since 2003, it said. If the growth rate stays constant, the country should import 2.5 million tons of palm oil this year, it said.

China may also increase palm oil imports slightly from top producers Indonesia and Malaysia, the report said. China's January-September palm oil imports were up by 0.4% to 4.17 million tons on year, data from the General Administration of Customs showed last month.

The USDA expects Indonesia's 2011-12 ending stocks to rise to 617,000 tons from an earlier estimate of 462,000 tons

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