DJ Asian Crude Palm Oil Drops On Soyoil, Crude Oil; Fundamentals To Support 17.11.2011
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange fell Thursday, tracking crude oil and soyoil futures amid continued euro-zone debt concerns even as palm oil fundamentals remain strong.
The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended 0.9% lower at MYR3,212 a metric ton.
December soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 0.2% to settle at 52.48 cents a pound Wednesday; it was 0.6% lower in screen trade when trade on the BMD ended.
ICE Brent January crude oil was down 1.2% at $110.53 a barrel at 1010 GMT.
A bearish outlook by eminent vegoil analyst James Fry this afternoon also weighed on CPO prices.
Fry told an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur that he expects rising crude supply to drag ICE Brent futures down toward $79 a barrel by June, which may pull down CPO toward $850/ton [MYR2,677].
"High petroleum prices are making a double-dip recession ever more likely. That is why I believe oil prices must fall," Fry said. "When this happens, it will hit all vegetable oil prices, since they are linked."
However, not all analysts are bearish about the market.
"With growth in CPO production decelerating and demand remaining buoyant," CPO is set to rise to MYR3,300/ton by January and MYR4,000/ton in June, another leading vegetable oil analyst Dorab Mistry said Sunday an industry conference in Guangzhou.
A developing La Nina weather event may mean heavier rainfall over the next few weeks in key palm oil growing areas of peninsular Malaysia and may cause harvesting delays, said a trading executive in Kuala Lumpur.
Malaysia's palm oil stocks will likely decline to about 1.9 million tons by end of November, down 9.5% from a month earlier, as export demand is expected to remain strong, he said...Stocks by the end of December could be even lower, around 1.8 million tons, "a huge bullish scenario for CPO prices," he said.
"I see strong support for BMD CPO at MYR3,100/ton in the coming weeks and prices could test MYR3,500/ton in the first quarter of next year," he said.
In the cash market, refined palm olein was offered $5 lower at $1,090/ton while cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR30 lower at MYR3,230/ton.
Open interest on the BMD was 132,924 lots, versus 136,174 lots Wednesday. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
A total of 48,741 lots of CPO were traded versus 41,159 lots Wednesday.
Closing BMD CPO futures prices in MYR/ton at 1030 GMT: Month Close Previous Change High Low Dec'11 3,229 3,254 -25 3,270 3,228 Jan'12 3,218 3,246 -28 3,268 3,218 Feb'12 3,212 3,241 -29 3,268 3,212 Mar'12 3,211 3,240 -29 3,261 3,211